26 challenges and opportunities on aviation’s road to 2050

by Eric Leopold (Threedot) | Jan 17, 2024 | Airlines, Airports, Digital Transformation, News, Travel Tech

As we (Terrapinn and Threedot) resume our editorial collaboration for a third year, towards World Aviation Festival 2024, I thought I’d take a step back and look at challenges and opportunities facing Aviation until 2050, across eight areas. I’ve listed 26 topics below, like the number of years to go until 2050.

Sustainability

In 2024 the main challenge facing air transport, but also the biggest opportunity, may be sustainability. The sustainability of an industry is the balance between the benefits and costs to the society. In the case of air transport, the benefits in terms of jobs and economic development may represent about 2-3% of the world’s GDP (about $2.5 trillion compared to $100 trillion[1]), whereas the costs to society include about 2% of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions (about 1bn tonnes compared to 50b tonnes[2]), as well as noise and other impacts on the environment. The challenge is to keep the 100 million jobs and other benefits while reducing or eliminating the CO2 emissions and other impacts.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

The opportunities lie in the development of an entire new ecosystem around the production and distribution of new “sustainable” fuels, as well as aircraft and engines that don’t require fuel combustion. As airlines collectively spend hundreds of billions every year on fuel, aircraft and engines, there is major market for new solutions. States, transport operators and technology providers are working and funding these solutions. The trend of the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is a global trend that encompasses not only transports.

Hydrogen

In theory, hydrogen is attractive. Whereas Carbon combined to Oxygen creates CO2, Hydrogen combined to Oxygen creates H2O, water. With a high energy density by weight and generation from renewable (non-fossil) energies, hydrogen seems a viable alternative fuel. However, this fuel requires a new infrastructure from transportation to storage, and new aircraft designs, with related safety concerns. While promising, it comes with more challenges than the SAF approach.

Safety

Aviation became the safest mode of transport over the past 80 years, since States decided to create an international aviation system with safety as number one priority. Yet many challenges keep arising, as the recent pandemic and incidents reminded us.

Health and COVID-19

Aviation carries people and people carry viruses; hence aviation indirectly carries viruses around the world. After the SARS and MERS alerts, the SARS-CoV-2 corona-virus and its variants took over the world, spreading the Corona-Virus Disease identified in 2019 (COVID-19). The reaction of most States was to close borders to international traffic in an attempt to mitigate the propagation. As COVID tests and vaccines were developed, borders re-opened under conditions which could have been more predictable and coordinated. WHO reports close to 7m deaths for 770m cases[3]. As we enter 2024, the COVID pandemic is behind us but the pandemic risk from another virus still applies to aviation.

Safety Culture and 737 Max

For 80 years aviation has built a strong safety record, but not one we can take it for granted. The grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX in 2019-2020 after two similar crashes was a reminder that a commitment to safety and transparency is critical to the sustainability of aviation. The financial pressure on manufacturers will keep increasing, and many new manufacturers are entering the market, which increases the challenge for them to think “safety first” when confronted with other priorities.

Aircraft tracking and MH370

Aircraft tracking is an ambivalent topic. While aviation is highly regulated and standardized, private companies managed to create a global network for real-time aircraft tracking, such as Flightradar24[4] or FlightAware[5]. These services enable travelers and their families to know the status of flights. It came as a surprise to many when the flight 370 of Malaysia Airlines (MH) was lost and not tracked. Indeed, there is global tracking system once the aircraft transponder is switched off. Almost ten years after losing MH370, there is no certainty on the reason of the disappearance of the aircraft from the radars of air traffic controllers.

Space transport, drones and vertiports

Different kinds of aircraft have begun navigating the air space and sharing it with commercial airlines, creating a need for harmonized traffic management. Virgin Galactic wants to develop space tourism and their shuttles will need to cross the airspace at high speed. Many companies are building remotely piloted aircraft, commonly called drones, or even autonomous aircraft, which can fly themselves to destination. The Vertical-Takeoff-and-Landing (VTOL) technology will allow flying cars and taxis, at a large scale than helicopters, requiring vertiports (no-runway airports for VTOL aircraft) and urban airways[6].

Dangerous goods, Lithium batteries

The goods transported in the hold of the aircraft may create a threat as well. For example, regulations require that lithium batteries be removed from checked bags. Either a short circuit or an internal defect may cause the battery to heat up, catch fire or explode due to pressure, which is a major issue inside an aircraft in the air. While regulations exist and communications and trainings are widespread, the residual risks come from counterfeit products.

These safety challenges remind us of the constant challenges of making a mode of transport safe. Turbulences are more a nuisance to passengers’ comfort than a threat to their lives.

Security

The aviation community makes a distinction between the types of threats. While safety deals with unintentional harmful effects, security protects against intentional, and unlawful, actions. Aviation is a target of criminal acts, such as the 9/11 attacks, and more challenges are on the horizon.

Airport security screening for passengers

The purpose of airport security screening is to ensure that no passenger carries any weapon that could threaten the flights. Over time, threats have included liquids and gels, which increased the pain inflicted to all passengers traveling with carry-on bags. In regular traveler surveys, the security checkpoint remains the main pain point of the entire travel experience and is the privilege of air travel compared to other modes of transport. There is an opportunity to use new technologies and expedite this security process, potentially combining personal data where possible.

Disruptive, or “unruly” passengers

Although passengers are screened before entering the aircraft, some may still misbehave during the flight, which in general represents a nuisance to other passengers and in extreme cases may require to divert and land the aircraft if the individual is a threat to other passengers or the flight. While the awareness of the issue has increased recently, crews are well prepared, and the objective is to eliminate the disruptive behaviors. Measures such as temporary or lifetime bans, or the ability to prosecute, should be effective in most jurisdictions.

Cyber-security

Cyber-security is a topic broader than aviation that grew over time with the digitalization of industries and the dependence on communication networks. In the world of aviation, cyber-attacks are one of the few threats that could ground the entire aviation network, and cyber-security is one topic that may keep aviation leaders awake at night. Vulnerabilities include air traffic management and aircraft operations. While there is no evidence of a hacker remotely taking control of air traffic management or of aircraft commands, the risk has been identified.

Drones used as a weapons

While leisure drones are amazing tools for taking photos and videos from the sky, and professional drones become vehicles for delivering goods over the air, the latter may be wrongly used to harm people, as demonstrated recently in war zones. Aviation may become a target of harmful drones in the airport areas and need to build preventive measures in the most sensitive areas.

Efficiency

Global air transport can be considered as highly efficient, compared to rail transport for example. Despite being standardized and coordinated globally, many frustrating challenges remain and need to be addressed.

Air Navigation delays

The main cause of traveler frustration, according to a recent study[7] by TNMT, is flight irregularities. A flight may be delayed for many reasons, due to the airline, to the airport, to air traffic management, or else – but from a traveler perspective, the airline is accountable. Regarding air traffic management, recent issues include post-COVID workforce shortage, IT system outages or strikes, which all increase delays, disruptions and irregularities. Regulations may help, such as a new law[8] in France requiring air traffic controllers to give a 2-day notice which may help canceling fewer flights.

Closure of airspace

Conflicts and wars have an impact on airspace. For example, the Russian airspace is closed to many airlines since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and Russian airlines are banned from many airspaces. The airspace closure has lengthened the path from Europe to Asia forcing aircraft routes[9] to the North or South of Russia, increasing the time and cost of these flights. Further political instability may impact the availability of routes in the skies.

Legacy technologies

The global air navigation infrastructure was built before the invention of modern communication networks. Pilots and air traffic controllers were trained to communicate by voice, to speak in English and to use coded words to avoid misunderstandings, e.g. Fox Charlie for FC. However nowadays, machines talk to each other by exchanging data, and even people know how to send precise GPS location by text message. The role of voice in air traffic management will become a challenge for autonomous flights where no human is present for a conversation with an air traffic controller. The vision[10] of the US Federal Aviation Administration is a communication by API, not voice.

Travel Experience

The passenger traffic has just recovered to 2019 levels[11], which means in 2024 we can stop referring to 2019 and simply refer to the previous year. With the recovery challenge just behind us, the next challenge is the doubling of traffic in the next 15-20 years, using a similar infrastructure to today, without impacting the travel experience.

Retailing, or the promise of a personalized service and experience

The legacy technology challenge in airline distribution is being addressed. While airlines, travel agencies and technology providers had invented e-commerce in the 1960s before the internet was created, this infrastructure struggled to evolve beyond its original purpose of selling seats in a regulated industry. A new era of software, based on airline offers and orders[12], leveraging artificial intelligence, will enable travelers to customize their travel experience.

Facilitation, or the promise of a seamless experience at a high level of security

Each crisis usually brings another layer of control which may never go away. The COVID crisis added health documentation controls (vaccines or tests), in addition to immigration and customs controls at borders, as well as security checks and of course boarding gate procedures. The search for the single integrated token, that supports a seamless passenger experience across the airport, at departure and arrival, is still on. Complementary initiatives like ICAO’s Traveller Identification Programme (TRIP)[13] and IATA’s OneID[14], respectively focused on government-issued and airline-issued credentials, are two enablers of this dream journey.

Connectivity, or the Timbuktu to Kota Kinabalu challenge

Air transport provides connectivity. Going from Mali to Malaysia may take 4000 hours (or 166 days) over 19000km by foot (across Libya, Syria, Iraq, Nepal, Myanmar, etc.) according to Google Map, or two days by air, while rail may not be an option due to borders and terrain. In many parts of the world where infrastructure is developing, air transport remains the preferred option, as rail may cost $1-10m per km of new line, depending on the geography, type of rail or labor cost, and take years or decades to connect two cities.

Technology & Innovation

Aviation is both a very innovative sector and slow to adopt innovation. The airframes, engines and other aircraft-related technologies have made significant progress over 80 years, and at the same time they seem to underestimate the sustainability challenge. On the commercial side, airlines have invented e-commerce when providing fares and inventory to travel agencies, and at the same time they cannot match today’s customer expectations for digital experience. Innovation and adoption of new technologies will have a major impact on aviation’s sustainability, efficiency, security and beyond.

AI impacts autonomous flights and efficient air transport management

Aviation has decades of experience in flying aircraft in all visibility and weather conditions, using autopilots, Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and global Air Traffic Control to guide aircraft stably and reliably. While AI may already help optimize individual flight paths, for performance or sustainability, and air traffic in general, for example by supporting controllers’ decisions, it will be critical to manage the growing number of new aircraft types, from remotely piloted aircraft to autonomous aircraft.

Data about turbulences or any source of risks to increase safety, security and efficiency

Technology and regulation already enable the live tracking of aircraft, using the aircraft ADS-B transponders, the messages over frequencies and the ground stations. The data generated by the aircraft helps inform travelers but may also support the decision making of many operators. Aircraft sensors and weather radar enable the modeling of the atmosphere and possible turbulences, which can inform the pilots and air traffic controllers, and eventually make flights more comfortable for travelers.

Digital, from digital ID to mobile experience

All the documentation has been digitalized in the last two decades with the introduction of smart phones, including the tickets, the boarding passes and the methods of payments. The passport is the last physical travel document. The current e-passport holds a chip that stores biometric information, authenticated by a public key infrastructure (PKI)[15]. The next step is to store the personal data on a phone and to allow the identification securely, which will transform the phone into the single travel token.

Workforce

Aviation’s challenge is to have a workforce that grows fast enough to support the doubling of air traffic within the next 15 years (assuming 5% annual traffic growth) or 18 years (4%). The opportunity is to train new professional, attract people who would not have considered aviation, but also gain efficiency by accommodating more traffic within the same infrastructure.

Shortage of skilled staff, pilots and technicians

Some staff may not have returned to the aviation sector after the pandemic, some staff may not be fully trained after their absence during the pandemic. In some regions where aviation is pointed as the main cause of climate change, young professionals may hesitate to join the sector and learn the required skills. In other regions some sectors may be more attractive to young, educated professionals looking for an exciting career path. At the same time, aviation is facing its biggest challenge and will go through its biggest transformation during the next generation.

Gender diversity

Aviation has historically lacked gender diversity, with men being more represented both in operational and management roles, and Amelia Earhart remaining one exception. This status has changed recently, for example with the appointment of female CEOs to lead airlines. Role models will attract more women to aviation, which will help address the workforce and talent shortage.

Regulation / Liberalization

Air transport is still the only global industry that is not globalized, i.e. there is no global airline. The entities that are the closest to being a global airline are alliances, limited to some commercial synergies, or joint-ventures, also commercial, or airline groups in some regions, e.g. Latin America or Europe or Southeast Asia.

Liberalization of ownership and control

Unlike other businesses, airlines must be owned, in many jurisdictions, by nationals, or foreigners may own up to 25% of an airline, for example. States may sign Air Service Agreements that limit the number of flights between two States and enforce the ownership rules. Since the deregulation of aviation, there is a trend to further liberalize the sector, for example with the EU-US Open Skies agreement for traffic rights or the EU Single European Sky for air traffic management. The African Union voted in 1999 a promising Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM)[16] to enhance connectivity across the continent.

Laws restricting flights in France and Netherlands

As part of climate change actions, France passed a law[17] that became effective in 2023 to ban or restrict domestic flights where train is a viable alternative. In a similar spirit, the Dutch government had plans to cap the number of flights at Amsterdam’s airport, Schiphol, but this plan may face some challenges and pressures, reflecting the balance of environment and economic interests. This type of restrictions may grow unless aviation implements the sustainable transformation at a credible pace.

Taxation and environment

Air transport is subject to heavy regulation and taxes. The energy transition of air transport will be influenced by new regulations and taxes. States may introduce taxes on carbon emissions, using CORSIA[18], the international framework of ICAO, and incentivize the production of sustainable fuels. Although the aim is to produce enough SAF at a competitive price to support a timely transition, the unpredictable impact of the regulations and taxes represents a major challenge for all stakeholders.

Harmonization or lack of, from security to health

Last but not least, aviation is globally interconnected and interoperable sector, like telecom or banking, but still lacks harmonization in areas such as health and security. Harmonization represents a major effort which will deliver benefits for most of the proposals in this article. Harmonization makes the travel experience more seamless, it reduces safety risks, it accelerates implementation, it facilitates working abroad or investing in businesses, and more. After years of continuous growth, despite conflicts, crisis and pandemics, aviation has the opportunity to bring inter-operability to the next level.

Article by Eric Leopold

[1] Benefits of Air Transport https://aviationbenefits.org/economic-growth/ and World GDP https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-by-country/

[2] Global greenhouse gas emissions https://ourworldindata.org/ghg-emissions-by-sector

Global CO2 emissions in 2022 https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00406-z

Energy-related CO2 emissions in 2022 https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2022

[3] WHO on COVID-19: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

[4] Flightradar24: https://www.flightradar24.com

[5] FlightAware: https://www.flightaware.com/

[6] ICAO on Advanced Air Mobility: https://www.icao.int/Meetings/AAM2024/Pages/default.aspx

[7] TNMT study on passenger frustration: https://tnmt.com/passenger-frustration-with-airlines/

[8] New law on air traffic control (in French): https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/tourisme-transport/les-greves-du-controle-aerien-seront-mieux-encadrees-a-lavenir-2029453

[9] Airlines still flying in Russian airspace: https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/which-major-airlines-are-still-flying-over-russian-airspace/