Industry body IATA has named the five risks that most threaten the aviation industry in 2026. With profit margins expected to remain tight at 3.9%, good decision planning and situational awareness will be critical in determining which airlines make it through the year unscathed.

1. Policy fragmentation

Last year saw the aviation industry thrown into chaos by tariffs, and Marie Owens Thomsen, Senior Vice President, Sustainability & Chief Economist, at IATA, reckons trade disruption will continue in the year ahead. However, this time policy fragmentation around the globe will have more impact.

From protectionism to divergence on sustainability and taxation, nations are more inclined than ever to sidestep industry bodies. Owens Thomsen notes:

Such policies raise little money for governments, have little or no impact on emissions, and make air transport more expensive.

2. Supply chain disruptions

This has been an ongoing theme for years now, but unfortunately pressure on supply chains remains high. IATA does not expect delays on aircraft orders to abate until the 2030s, and also highlights that this negatively impacts the pace on sustainable development.

3. Climate change-related disruptions

Rising temperatures are resulting in more extreme weather events. From violent snowstorms to heatwaves, the impact on all industries’ trade and infrastructure cannot be understated. In the years ahead, increased migration from ‘climate refugees’ will place further strain on air transport and immigration authorities.

4. Cyber threats and Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Airlines and airports are increasingly turning to technology to improve efficiency and manage greater passenger numbers. Yet the deployment of third-party tech providers also multiplies the frontiers for cyberattack. As a critical industry that hosts a wealth of sensitive data, the aviation world is especially vulnerable.

As for AI, the benefits could take years to realise, and the software is not infallible. Misinformation and loss of privacy could all damage relationships with passengers.

5. Macro-economic outlook

The weakening of the US dollar will have a significant impact on aviation, where over half of its cost base is invoiced in USD. While lower oil prices will benefit airlines, the world economy in general is not inclined to growth, threatening the aviation industry’s already narrow margins.

Nevertheless, IATA see reasons to be optimistic, with 4% of global GDP still linked to air travel. Additionally, they emphasise that a move towards sustainable aviation could generate far greater change than any economic policy.

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