This article was originally published on our sister site, Aerospace Tech Review.
IATA has published its latest sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production figures and issued a stark warning as the industry looks set to miss key targets.
SAF production has doubled from 2024, reaching 1.9 million tonnes (Mt) by the end of 2025, according to IATA. However, these numbers full short of earlier forecasts, and in 2026 the production rate is projected to slow and reach only 2.4Mt.
IATA lists policies in Europe, including the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation and UK SAF mandates, as key hindrances. They say these schemes have pushed high SAF costs onto airlines and fail to nurture a stable supply chain. In a strongly-worded statement, Director General Willie Walsh emphasised the urgency of change:
SAF production growth fell short of expectations as poorly designed mandates stalled momentum in the fledgling SAF industry. If the goal of SAF mandates was to slow progress and increase prices, policymakers knocked it out of the park. But if the objective is to increase SAF production to further the decarbonisation of aviation, then they need to learn from failure and work with the airline industry to design incentives that will work.
Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist, said it would be ‘outrageous’ if regulators were to take the same approach with forthcoming e-SAF mandates. e-SAF already suffers from a much-higher cost base than conventional SAF due to the costs of renewable energy supplies.
Regardless, IATA say the failures of SAF so far have already complicated sustainability targets. Walsh adds:
Regrettably, many airlines that have committed to use 10% SAF by 2030 will be forced to reevaluate these commitments. SAF is not being produced in sufficient amounts to enable these airlines to achieve their ambition. These commitments were made in good faith but simply cannot be delivered.
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