The International Air Transport Association (IATA) have released their Long Term Demand Predictions (LTDP), forecasting that demand for air travel will double by 2050.

IATA’s higher growth model scenario would see the industry expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3%, with passenger demand hitting 21.9 trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs). Even tempered for lower growth, the LTDP still forecasts a 2.9% CAGR and doubling demand.

Emerging markets will be key to expanding air travel, with IATA describing the pace of growth across regions as ‘uneven’. Asia-Pacific and Africa are set to become the fastest-growing regions, with CAGRs of 3.8% and 3.6% respectively. Europe and North America will grow more slowly in comparison, at 2.5% and 2.8%. These figures demonstrate once again how aviation’s centre of geography is shifting away from the Western Hemisphere.

Europe-centred markets will become the slowest-growing, while more dynamic expansion is set to take place across intra-African (4.9%) and intra-APAC (3.9%) networks, with further growth on Africa-APAC (4.5%), APAC-Middle East (3.9%), and Africa-North America routes. IATA stress the importance of investing in infrastructure and regulation across these developing regions to ensure healthy growth.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, commented:

The outlook for air travel is positive. People want to travel and, under all our modelled scenarios, the demand to fly is expected to more than double by mid-century. That is good news for global economic and social development because aviation growth will catalyse opportunities, including jobs, around the world.

The report notes that industry breakdown as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic caused ‘permanent structural damage’ to aviation demand. Even under the higher growth scenario modelled by the LTDP, the gap caused by the pandemic is so great that the 2050 numbers will not converge on those that were predicted before the unprecedented events of 2020.

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