Airports Council International (ACI) have published their World Air Traffic Forecasts 2025-2054, predicting that demand will double to 18.8 billion passengers by 2045.

While in 2025 air traffic by October year-to-date (YTD) had reached 106% of October 2019 levels, ACI notes that the aviation landscape has undergone significant shifts in the years since the Covid-19 pandemic. The report highlights three ‘lasting structural changes’ that will all have an effect on aviation’s growth pattern in the coming decades:

  • Regional disparities, with Asia-Pacific and the Middle Eastern regions rapidly overtaking the more sluggish growth in Europe and North America.
  • More momentum in international traffic as domestic markets readjust for long-term demand.
  • Delivery delays and supply chain disruption constraining capacity.

ACI World Director General Justin Erbacci commented:

Without collective action, capacity constraints jeopardise the industry’s ability to meet the projected demand and create operational bottlenecks, directly affecting the quality and reliability of the passenger journey. At the same time, insufficient investment to meet the projected demand would result in missed economic development opportunities at regional and national levels.

‘Uncertainty as a structural feature’

Additionally, the report notes that geopolitical disruption, aircraft supply constraints, and trade policy fragmentation can no longer be considered as risks worth anticipating, but features of the global economic landscape that must be built into long-term planning. While ACI believe such events will not impact aviation’s overall growth trajectory, they will emphasise regional divergence, making growth opportunities more uneven.

The Middle East is set to be the fastest-growing market, with ACI predicting a 3.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025-2054. Other dynamic regions will be Asia-Pacific (+3.6% CAGR), Africa (+3.6% CAGR), and Latin America and the Caribbean (+3.1% CAGR). By contrast, the old powerhouses of aviation, Europe and North America, are set to lag behind, with CAGR hovering around +2-2.5%.

Ranked by total passenger traffic, ACI forecast that China will overtake the US as the world’s biggest aviation market, with 3.9 billion passengers expected in 2054. Elsewhere, Indonesia is set to become the fourth-largest market, rapidly climbing from 16th place in 2025. Other countries set to storm up the global rankings include Saudi Arabia (20th biggest market in 2025, rising to 11th by 2054), Thailand (19th biggest to 13th), and Vietnam (rising to 20th in 2035, then 12th by 2054).

Erbacci adds:

To accommodate rising demand, the industry must accelerate investment in airport infrastructure, airspace capacity, and operational resilience, while strengthening collaboration across airports, airlines, governments, regulators, and industry partners

Join us at Aviation Festival Asia 2026 to discuss trends shaping growth in the region.

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