By Eric Léopold, Founder, Threedot
The speed of innovation in technology means that airlines leaders must keep an eye on new and evolving technologies across multiple horizons, while filtering the level of hype that comes with these emerging technologies. Can they map the key technologies that can impact their airline business by level of maturity, while taking out the hype factors? Can they seamlessly operate in a dual mode, where they experiment quickly with new or future technology while rolling out in phases the mature or at scale technology?
For this article I’ve picked four stages of technology evolution in terms of maturity horizon and hype, and illustrated each stage with digital technologies relevant to air travel. We could have done a similar exercise using aircraft technology, talking about drones, electric engines and batteries, EVTOL, etc.
1.Future technology
“Future technology” includes technology at a research and development stage, for example quantum computing, which is a branch of computing that leverages quantum mechanics.
Quantum computing: the hype is coming for this technology to watch out. The promise of quantum computing is a new generation of algorithms that can solve major challenges, like breaking encryption algorithms used to secure data today. The hype around quantum computing will explode as soon as a breakthrough is achieved and can be reproduced widely. Any application requiring intensive computing may be impacted, from network optimization and weather forecasting to cryptography and data security.
2.New technology
“New technology” includes technology that has recently become available at production stage, for example Generative Artificial Intelligence, which is a branch of AI that is able to generate new data such as texts and images.
Generative Artificial Intelligence: The hype around AI is at its peak, once again. Over the past decades, AI has enabled many innovations, from computer vision to autonomous vehicles. Since 2022, Generative AI is the latest breakthrough in this field. GenAI has delivered the ability for computers to “understand” and generate text with a quality that equals, and sometimes surpasses, human-generated content. Following the hype of the past few months, companies are compiling business case and exploring use cases to unlock the full potential of GenAI.
3.Maturing technology
“Maturing technology” includes technology that has become available for production and implemented multiple use cases, for example blockchain or metaverse.
Blockchain: the crypto and NFT hype are over. Innovators in the travel blockchain space like Winding Tree have shut down, but several tech startups in digital identity or payment and settlement are using the technology. The current state of “disillusionment” may last until the technology is more broadly embedded into mainstream applications and can demonstrate long-term benefits.
4.Technology at scale
“Technology at scale” includes technology that has reached global scale implementation in production with proven benefits in multiple use cases, such as cybersecurity, cloud and API, biometric, or 5G and connectivity.
Cybersecurity: On 19 July 2024 a significant “glitch”, referred to as “global IT outage” or “Windows bug” or “CrowdStrike incident”, severely impacted many industries, including airlines. This event was a reminder about the need and lack of tech-related business resilience in general, particularly as it was caused by an error rather than a malicious intent. Those systems shutting down everywhere also highlighted the potential risk of cyber threats from malicious actors with harmful intent. This global IT outage is still an exception as cybersecurity technology works reliably at global scale, while 30 years ago some “experts” predicted that internet would never support any secure transactions.
Cloud and API: The hype and concerns about cloud computing are now resolved. Cloud computing has been achieved mainstream adoption at scale, despite initial resistance to hosting data and applications remotely. Cloud-based applications connected by APIs are replacing legacy systems and business models. The speed of the transition to cloud and APIs still depends on multiple factors: benefits, complexity and commercials.
Biometric: The biometric technology, used to identify and verify an individual’s identity, has moved well beyond the hype curve as border control authorities have implemented facial and fingerprint recognition at scale, while the boarding process is on the way. Initial concerns about false negative, or data breach and privacy, have broadly been addressed during earlier stages.
5G and connectivity: 5G, the fifth generation of mobile network technology, provides a bandwidth that allows airlines staff can connect to their host system anytime anywhere, at the airport or else. Air-to-ground and satellite technologies, providing coverage over the ground and oceans, enable inflight connectivity to become widely available.
5.Tech trends to watch
Besides technologies, which emerge and reach scale over time, there are some trends to watch that apply to technology. For example, open-source is a development model that applies to technologies and promotes principles like accessibility and peer review for benefits like collaboration, safety and innovation, as an alternative to closed proprietary systems.
Open-source: In the context of GenAI, OpenAI’s GPT models and Anthropic’s Claude model are not open-source (despite OpenAI original company’s intent), however very popular Large Language Models, such as Meta’s Llama 3, are open source. While intuitively software developers tend to keep software proprietary for commercial reasons (control, security, monetization), some categories may benefit from an open-source model, such as Unix for servers and now Llama for AI. See “Open Source AI is the Path Forward” by Meta’s CEO.
Conclusion
This technology overview highlights the importance for airlines to adapt their approach – attitude or innovation mode – towards the technologies they wish to adopt. For early-stage technologies, their focus should be on agility and proving viable use cases. In contrast, later-stage technologies require prioritizing implementation with speed and scale. Insights and lessons from mature technologies include that major initial concerns with new technologies proved to be unfounded, e.g. a technology might not scale. While airlines may be perceived as slow to experiment with new technologies and to roll-out established ones, they could greatly benefit from adopting a dual mode for innovation in technology.
