Airbus have released their Global Market Forecast 2026-2045, outlining the key factors the manufacturers believe will reshape the industry.
Annual traffic growth will rise by 3.9% each year, requiring 42,060 new aircraft. Airbus predict half of these will be replacements as airlines seek to open lower-demand routes more profitably. Around 39% of aircraft currently operating are from the newest generation, but the report asserts this will rise to almost 100% within the next two decades, driven by focus on cost and carbon efficiency.
Consolidating margins and sustainability efforts is essential given the passenger numbers forecast. The global middle class, the demographic most likely to travel by air, will grow by a further 1.4 billion by 2045. Expanding migrant diasporas and developing economies need to be connected, while keeping flying affordable requires the support of low-cost models as well as government initiatives.
Airbus’s research further shows that the rate at which smaller cities are growing outpaces large urban centres. These patterns will produce different, decentralised traffic maps, with an emphasis on connecting communities beyond existing aviation hubs. This development is supported by the emergence of narrow-body long-haul aircraft that make new networks commercially viable.
While in the short term the aviation industry is suffering due to the volatile situation in the Middle East and high fuel prices, the long-term picture remains positive. The airlines and airports that can adapt to these changes will be best placed to be leaders in 2045.
Join us at World Aviation Festival 2026.
For more like this, see:
